Six years ago, the U.S. housing market plunged off a cliff. Now prices are bouncing back up — sharply in many markets.
That has some real estate analysts saying 2013 may mark the turning point — when pent-up demand will revive the housing sector and boost the broader economy.
The optimists say millions of Americans have been living with relatives or renting for years now, trying to ride out the Great Recession and the slow recovery. At this point, many are ready to buy homes of their own.
If that theory turns out to be right, the home-sales boom could lead to new jobs in construction, landscaping, drapery hanging, furniture making, lending and much more.
A Housing Resurgence?
The reasons for optimism are compelling:
— Census data show that the number of such multigenerational households of adults rose from 46.5 million in 2007 to 51.4 million by the end of 2009 — a 10.5 percent jump over just three years. That means millions of young adults are still living with their parents, and may be eager to move out.
— Rents are high. RealFacts LLC said that its most recent survey shows that out of 41 markets, rents were up in 39 and remained flat in two.
— Even as rents rise, homes remain affordable in most markets because prices are well below peak levels and interest rates remain low by historic standards.
— Overall household debt has declined to the lowest level since 2006, according to a new study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That means more people are in better financial shape to buy a house.
In light of all those factors, "there's pretty clearly a lot of pent-up demand," said Andrew Paciorek, an economist with the Federal Reserve Board in Washington.
His research shows that between 2006 and 2011, the number of Americans forming new households was less than half what it would have been under normal economic conditions. That rate of household formation represented "the lowest five-year period on record — at least back to the 1950s or so," he said.
His economic model predicts that the housing market will continue to see a steady boost as Americans finally shake off the recession and get back to forming new households.
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