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"Most of the young people that go to college go away, and then they don't come back," says Lee Bianchi, a retired engineer who lived in Clinton, Iowa (pop. 26,647), from 1961 to 2008.

That's long been the storyline in small-town America, which for decades has bled citizens — especially young ones — to the glamorous big cities. One might have thought technology would stanch the flow, at least among millennials: With Wi-Fi and telecommuting, young people theoretically could dodge overpriced real estate and ugly commutes and opt instead for a spacious house with a big yard and a broadband connection.

But it turns out the millennial generation is only accelerating the demographic shift. In fact, this may be the most "bright lights, big city" generation in history. While the number of millennials is ticking slightly upward in small towns and rural areas, it's nothing compared with the growth of their numbers in suburbs and cities.

"At this point, the prognosis does not look good for much of small-town America," writes William H. Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution.

The kids aren't just flocking to the city proper, either, but to the metropolis writ large, including the fancier suburbs. The top destination for millennials is the Washington, D.C., suburb of Arlington, Va., where their ranks grew by a staggering 82 percent between 2007 and 2013. Arlington's median home sale price is $557,250, and of the 290 Arlington apartments listed on Zillow, only 10 would let you live alone for less than $1,200 a month.

An enterprising millennial with a flexible employer might hop across the Chesapeake Bay to the historic district of Cambridge, Md., (pop. 12,690) with a porch overlooking the Choptank River. With a thriving downtown and arts district, Cambridge was No. 10 on Livability's list of Best Small Towns in 2013. Homes go for $164,154, and a monthly $1,200 rental will get you a detached house or a 1,600-square-foot townhouse.

But affordable real estate and waterfront views don't have millennials biting. They continue "a multigenerational pattern of young adults preferring more expensive urban areas over lower-cost rural ones because the lifestyles and opportunities in such places make the extra burden of cost worth it," says Robert Lang, professor of urban growth and population dynamics at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

Which is to say: Getting to a big city — or at least near one — still has the smell of success.

"We don't all hail from small Midwestern towns, but most came from places where they felt limited — small-town Maine, suburban west Texas, California's Central Valley and the Inland Empire," wrote twentysomething Brittany Shoot of her friends and neighbors in the San Francisco Bay Area. "It's easy to find people who will sneeringly complain about how trapped they felt as teenagers."

Small towns will have to hustle to recruit and retain millennials, experts say. The American Planning Association urges local planners to mimic the appeal of city centers by creating "density." That means keeping the walkable neighborhoods and traditional town centers that millennials say is key to making a community a desirable place to live.

Smart-growth advocate James A. Bacon sees opportunities to fight off "brain drain" and attract urban "escapees" who start small businesses, but he worries that towns aren't taking advantage. "Unfortunately, to date, local economic developers have stuck with the industrial-recruitment strategy that bears less and less fruit," Bacon writes.

But without economic opportunity — that is, good jobs — the most charming downtown in the world can't attract permanent residents. Small towns may have to reinvent themselves, according to experts like Frey of the Brookings Institution.

But all is not lost. The numbers that point toward the decline of small towns also show a positive narrative for millennials, and perhaps a sunnier economic outlook than you'd expect. Notwithstanding student-loan debt and the stereotype of living in their parents' basements, a RealtyTrac analysis released in September showed that this generation is moving where the rents and mortgages are high. Arlington is just the tip of it.

From 2007 to 2013, the 10 counties that gained the most millennial residents had a median home price of $406,800. And the average population of those counties was 587,522 — a far cry from small-town living. Baby boomers filled out the other side of the equation by downsizing to counties with average populations of 261,232 and a median home price of $144,875.

So the best answer as to why millennials are moving away from smaller towns may be simple: because they can. And small towns will have to rev up their sales pitch to convince young adults that they can live not just cheaply but also well in the places that older generations called home.

migration

Millennials

rural America

Urban demographics

With oil around $85 a barrel and tumbling to its lowest levels in several years, here's the upside: Gasoline prices are down, the U.S. is feeling less dependent on foreign crude, and serious economic pressure is growing on oil producers such as Iran and Russia.

Here's the downside: The low demand for oil reflects a fragile global economy that's vulnerable to additional shocks, like falling stock markets around the world.

Oil is still a uniquely influential commodity. Whenever prices move sharply in either direction, they unleash ripples around the globe that are both economic and political.

"We've had a three-year period of very stable oil prices," Michael Levi of the Council on Foreign Relations told NPR's All Things Considered. "Three years is a long time. People were starting to believe that this was permanent. And they were wrong. So the big news is that volatility is back, that big swings are what we should expect."

With the prices down around 25 percent since hitting $112 a barrel in June, here's a roundup of the impact worldwide:

Political Turmoil, Falling Prices: Something strange is happening. Three key oil producers (Iraq, Libya and Nigeria) are mired in domestic turbulence, and Iran's oil exports have been dramatically reduced by international sanctions.

In years past, trouble in these countries might have instigated panic in the oil market, driving up prices dramatically. But today, there's plenty of oil to go around for several reasons. Production in the United States is surging, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries have continued to pump at high levels, and overall global demand is weak.

While these conditions may not last, they do reflect what's been the steady loss of clout among big oil producers, particularly those in the Middle East.

The U.S. is producing more of its own oil and is buying the remainder from a wide range of mostly stable countries. The leading foreign supplier is Canada. Middle Eastern nations account for just three of the top 10 exporters to the U.S., and they account for around 10 percent of U.S. oil needs.

Russia's Lukoil launched this oil field in western Siberia on Oct. 8. Russia is heavily dependent on its oil exports and is now facing financial problems as world oil prices drop sharply. The country is also facing Western economic sanctions. Olesya Astakhova /Reuters/Landov hide caption

itoggle caption Olesya Astakhova /Reuters/Landov

Russia And Iran: From the U.S. perspective, one of the benefits of falling oil prices is the pressure they place on Russia and Iran. Both countries are heavily dependent on oil exports at high prices. They face the double whammy of Western sanctions that are also biting.

Russia needs an oil price of $100 a barrel and Iran needs around $130 a barrel to balance their budgets, according to The Economist.

The financial hurt these countries are facing could have political implications.

Russia is at odds with the West over its annexation of Crimea and its ongoing role in Ukraine's turmoil. Russian President Vladimir Putin has consistently opted for confrontation, but the price for that position is getting steeper. Putin pushed back against a request for higher government spending this week, citing reduced government revenue from energy production.

"You know that energy prices have fallen as well as for some of our other traditional products," Putin said. "Due to that, would we not, on the contrary, reconsider the budget toward reducing some spending?"

Iran, meanwhile, is negotiating on its nuclear program with the international community and is also waging a proxy war with Saudi Arabia for power and influence throughout the Middle East.

This is one likely reason the Saudis have been willing to pump oil at high levels even though that's contributing to low prices. The Saudis publicly cite a business motive, saying they want to maintain their current share of the oil market. But the Saudis are also well aware that low prices mean less money for archrival Iran.

i i

Oil wells near McKittrick, Calif., one of the places where hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, is on the rise. The U.S. became the world's largest oil producer this year, surpassing Saudi Arabia and pumping some 11 million barrels a day. David McNew/Getty Images hide caption

itoggle caption David McNew/Getty Images

Oil wells near McKittrick, Calif., one of the places where hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, is on the rise. The U.S. became the world's largest oil producer this year, surpassing Saudi Arabia and pumping some 11 million barrels a day.

David McNew/Getty Images

U.S. Production: Despite soft demand, U.S. oil production is rising again this year due primarily to hydraulic fracturing, or fracking. The U.S., which became the world's largest natural gas producer in 2010, is now the world's largest oil producer this year, surpassing Saudi Arabia this year and pumping around 11 million barrels a day.

The average U.S. gas price is $3.17 a gallon this week, down around 15 percent since June, according to GasBuddy.com. The lower price at the pump effectively serves as a stimulus for consumers that can encourage increased spending to stimulate the economy.

"It's quite possible that Christmas shopping will be much better this year because consumers will be spending less for gasoline," economist Philip Verleger told NPR's Morning Edition.

While lower energy prices benefit most of the country, they could deliver a blow to oil-producing states like Texas, Oklahoma and North Dakota. If prices go down and stay down for an extended period, energy companies could cut back on production and investment.

Related NPR Stories

Energy

'A Global Bathtub': Rethinking The U.S. Oil Export Ban

Parallels

The 1973 Arab Oil Embargo: The Old Rules No Longer Apply

The Global Economy: Lower gas prices are a small consolation if accompanied by a sluggish world economy, and that's what many economists are forecasting. In Europe and Asia, most of the major economies have low or slow growth compared with recent years.

China and India, which were gulping down imported oil as their economies raced ahead, have both seen slowdowns. The lower oil prices will help keep their manufacturing and transportation costs down, but that alone is not enough if the rest of the world is less interested in buying their exports.

Of course, oil prices could reverse direction swiftly and dramatically, as they have many times in the past. Small shifts in world oil production, currently around 92 million barrels a day, often lead to major swings in prices. If, for example, Saudi Arabia chose to cut production, or the fighting in Iraq shut down its oil fields, prices could head north in a hurry, according to analysts.

Greg Myre is the international editor of NPR.org. You can follow him @gregmyre1.

oil prices

With oil around $85 a barrel and tumbling to its lowest levels in several years, here's the upside: Gasoline prices are down, the U.S. is feeling less dependent on foreign crude, and serious economic pressure is growing on oil producers such as Iran and Russia.

Here's the downside: The low demand for oil reflects a fragile global economy that's vulnerable to additional shocks, like falling stock markets around the world.

Oil is still a uniquely influential commodity. Whenever prices move sharply in either direction, they unleash ripples around the globe that are both economic and political.

"We've had a three-year period of very stable oil prices," Michael Levi of the Council on Foreign Relations told NPR's All Things Considered. "Three years is a long time. People were starting to believe that this was permanent. And they were wrong. So the big news is that volatility is back, that big swings are what we should expect."

With the prices down around 25 percent since hitting $112 a barrel in June, here's a roundup of the impact worldwide:

Political Turmoil, Falling Prices: Something strange is happening. Three key oil producers (Iraq, Libya and Nigeria) are mired in domestic turbulence, and Iran's oil exports have been dramatically reduced by international sanctions.

In years past, trouble in these countries might have instigated panic in the oil market, driving up prices dramatically. But today, there's plenty of oil to go around for several reasons. Production in the United States is surging, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries have continued to pump at high levels, and overall global demand is weak.

While these conditions may not last, they do reflect what's been the steady loss of clout among big oil producers, particularly those in the Middle East.

The U.S. is producing more of its own oil and is buying the remainder from a wide range of mostly stable countries. The leading foreign supplier is Canada. Middle Eastern nations account for just three of the top 10 exporters to the U.S., and they account for around 10 percent of U.S. oil needs.

Russia's Lukoil launched this oil field in western Siberia on Oct. 8. Russia is heavily dependent on its oil exports and is now facing financial problems as world oil prices drop sharply. The country is also facing Western economic sanctions. Olesya Astakhova /Reuters/Landov hide caption

itoggle caption Olesya Astakhova /Reuters/Landov

Russia And Iran: From the U.S. perspective, one of the benefits of falling oil prices is the pressure they place on Russia and Iran. Both countries are heavily dependent on oil exports at high prices. They face the double whammy of Western sanctions that are also biting.

Russia needs an oil price of $100 a barrel and Iran needs around $130 a barrel to balance their budgets, according to The Economist.

The financial hurt these countries are facing could have political implications.

Russia is at odds with the West over its annexation of Crimea and its ongoing role in Ukraine's turmoil. Russian President Vladimir Putin has consistently opted for confrontation, but the price for that position is getting steeper. Putin pushed back against a request for higher government spending this week, citing reduced government revenue from energy production.

"You know that energy prices have fallen as well as for some of our other traditional products," Putin said. "Due to that, would we not, on the contrary, reconsider the budget toward reducing some spending?"

Iran, meanwhile, is negotiating on its nuclear program with the international community and is also waging a proxy war with Saudi Arabia for power and influence throughout the Middle East.

This is one likely reason the Saudis have been willing to pump oil at high levels even though that's contributing to low prices. The Saudis publicly cite a business motive, saying they want to maintain their current share of the oil market. But the Saudis are also well aware that low prices mean less money for archrival Iran.

i i

Oil wells near McKittrick, Calif., one of the places where hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, is on the rise. The U.S. became the world's largest oil producer this year, surpassing Saudi Arabia and pumping some 11 million barrels a day. David McNew/Getty Images hide caption

itoggle caption David McNew/Getty Images

Oil wells near McKittrick, Calif., one of the places where hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, is on the rise. The U.S. became the world's largest oil producer this year, surpassing Saudi Arabia and pumping some 11 million barrels a day.

David McNew/Getty Images

U.S. Production: Despite soft demand, U.S. oil production is rising again this year due primarily to hydraulic fracturing, or fracking. The U.S., which became the world's largest natural gas producer in 2010, is now the world's largest oil producer this year, surpassing Saudi Arabia this year and pumping around 11 million barrels a day.

The average U.S. gas price is $3.17 a gallon this week, down around 15 percent since June, according to GasBuddy.com. The lower price at the pump effectively serves as a stimulus for consumers that can encourage increased spending to stimulate the economy.

"It's quite possible that Christmas shopping will be much better this year because consumers will be spending less for gasoline," economist Philip Verleger told NPR's Morning Edition.

While lower energy prices benefit most of the country, they could deliver a blow to oil-producing states like Texas, Oklahoma and North Dakota. If prices go down and stay down for an extended period, energy companies could cut back on production and investment.

Related NPR Stories

Energy

'A Global Bathtub': Rethinking The U.S. Oil Export Ban

Parallels

The 1973 Arab Oil Embargo: The Old Rules No Longer Apply

The Global Economy: Lower gas prices are a small consolation if accompanied by a sluggish world economy, and that's what many economists are forecasting. In Europe and Asia, most of the major economies have low or slow growth compared with recent years.

China and India, which were gulping down imported oil as their economies raced ahead, have both seen slowdowns. The lower oil prices will help keep their manufacturing and transportation costs down, but that alone is not enough if the rest of the world is less interested in buying their exports.

Of course, oil prices could reverse direction swiftly and dramatically, as they have many times in the past. Small shifts in world oil production, currently around 92 million barrels a day, often lead to major swings in prices. If, for example, Saudi Arabia chose to cut production, or the fighting in Iraq shut down its oil fields, prices could head north in a hurry, according to analysts.

Greg Myre is the international editor of NPR.org. You can follow him @gregmyre1.

oil prices

To stop the raging Ebola epidemic in West Africa, "we need to pay attention to where the fire is burning."

That means there is no "magic solution," Jim Yong Kim, the head of the World Bank, told NPR's Steve Inskeep during an interview on Morning Edition. So appointing an Ebola czar to monitor the international response isn't going to suddenly stop the outbreak.

Neither will closing the borders between U.S. and the three hardest-hit countries: Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

To Kim, that's not a long-term solution: "It's like you're in your room and the house is on fire, and your approach is to put wet towels under the door. That might work for a while, but unless you put the fire out, you're still in trouble."

"The way to stop this epidemic from coming at an even higher level in the United States is actually try to stop it in its tracks," he says of the many U.S. health workers who have volunteered to go overseas.

He says what's most important is not only getting protocols in place in the United States but in the three hardest hit countries: Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. That means quickly identifying cases and instituting a high level of infection control — not just standard precautions.

"We've got to have very high-quality protective equipment," he says. "When patients get sick we need to provide intensive care."

The good news, he says, is that leaders like President Obama and British Prime Minister David Cameron has stepped up in their aid. But the response has just been inadequate for an outbreak that dates back to December of last year. "We are only now getting comprehensive plans for how we are going to attack this epidemic," he says.

What's really missing are health workers, he says. "While we can move thing and build structures what we need are skilled health workers who can do all the complicated things you need to stop the epidemic."

Goats and Soda

A Glimmer Of Hope: Nigeria May Have Beaten Ebola

Kim pointed to Nigeria to illustrate the level of intervention needed to stop the current outbreak. With the help of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization, Nigeria was able to contain the outbreak, with 19 confirmed cases and only seven related deaths.

Still, "it cost them $13 million and more than 200 physicians [and] 600 other health workers," he says. "They had to do 19,000 home visits taking temperatures in order to get it control."

He acknowledges that with nearly 9,000 cases so far, there's a lot of work to be done. Yet he's confident that the international community will be able to stop Ebola — although he stresses that "we've got to move much more quickly."

Jim Yong Kim

ebola

World Bank