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With gas and oil prices plunging, among those benefiting are airlines. With fuel prices down, profits are up, but that doesn't mean you'll be able to find cheap airfares, especially over the holidays.

The airline industry is predicting more people will take to the skies over Thanksgiving than any year since the start of the recession.

The weather in Chicago is not quite frightful yet, but the snow and cold is coming; so warm weather destinations for the holidays sound appealing.

Those are the kinds of inquiries travel agent Giselle Sanchez of Mena Travel is fielding. After a few very slow years during the recession, Sanchez says business is really picking up.

"We are seeing a lot of families wanting to take trips and planning their trips, so we do see more people wanting to travel now," Sanchez says. "Is it back to where it was before? Not yet, but I think it's getting there."

But that means planes are packed tight, and because demand is rising, fares are up, especially over the two weeks when schools are out over the Christmas and New Year's holidays.

Thanksgiving weekend fares are higher than last year, too, especially if you want to fly on the Wednesday before and Sunday after Thanksgiving.

“ So far this year, airlines have earned more than $2 billion more than at this time last year — but that doesn't mean passengers can expect air fares to drop anytime soon.

The airline industry is expecting 24.6 million passengers on planes around Thanksgiving, up 1.5 percent over last year. And a whopping 2.6 million of those travelers will fly on that Sunday.

"Sunday is not only expected to be the busiest day of the period, but if last year's an indication, it should be the busiest day of the entire calendar year," said John Heimlich, chief economist for the industry group Airlines for America.

In a conference call with reporters this past week, Heimlich noted that dropping fuel prices are pushing up profits. So far this year, airlines have earned more than $2 billion more than at this time last year.

But he says that doesn't mean we can expect air fares to drop anytime soon.

"The first priority is to make sure you have strong financial health, can pay down your bills and invest in the future and weather the next recession," Heimlich said.

Back at Mena Travel in Chicago, Giselle Sanchez is looking to find a bargain around Christmas.

"See all these zeroes? When you see zeros in all inventory, that means it's a pretty full flight," she says.

Sanchez says she can still find some low fares, even around Thanksgiving — if you fly on certain days.

But with the convenient flights packed, to get the deals, you might need to take some extra days off.

Thanksgiving

Travel

Holidays

A tariff system that adds as much as 25 percent to the cost of American high-tech products could be on the way out, thanks to negotiations at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in China. President Obama announced the new progress Tuesday.

The development could speed the adoption of a new agreement by the World Trade Organization. The current tariff system has been in place for nearly 18 years and now applies to more than $4 trillion in annual global trade, U.S. officials say.

From Beijing, NPR's Scott Horsley reports:

"Negotiators have been working for the last two years to update what's known as the Information Technology Agreement, or ITA, but for much of that period talks were stalled. U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman says a breakthrough came last night, here in Beijing on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific economic summit.

"President Obama told his fellow leaders today that the APEC summit has often been an 'incubator' for ambitious free trade agreements:

" 'So it's fitting that we're here with our APEC colleagues to share the news that the United States and China have reached an understanding on the ITA that we hope will contribute to a rapid conclusion of the broader negotiations in Geneva. We think that's good news.' "

The new approach would phase out tariffs on devices that were far from the public market when the current ITA was shaped. Its adoption would require the support of dozens of other countries in addition to China and the United States.

In a release about today's news, the White House says more than 200 tariffs would be eliminated, including those that cover medical equipment, GPS devices, video game consoles and computer software.

"We already export over $2 billion of high-tech, high-end semiconductors, even with 25 percent tariffs," Froman says. "Eliminating those tariffs will obviously expand that trade significantly. It's an area where we have a comparative advantage, and where we can support a lot of good, well-paying American jobs."

Tariffs

China

The global economy rolls along more smoothly when it's not riding a unicycle. It needs additional wheels for momentum and stability.

That is, in effect, what Treasury Secretary Jack Lew is telling leaders of other advanced nations.

In a get-rolling speech Wednesday to the World Affairs Council, Lew said the U.S. economy is moving at a good pace these days, but needs support from the flat economies of Japan and the European Union.

Other countries cannot "rely on the United States to grow fast enough to make up for weak growth in major world economies," he said.

When Europe and Japan get too weak, then demand drops for made-in-America products and services, and the U.S. dollar gets too valuable, making life tougher for U.S. exporters.

"The world is stronger if we all take steps to bolster domestic demand," Lew said.

He spoke in Seattle, where he was doing a warm-up act ahead of the main event this weekend in Australia. In Brisbane, he will join President Obama and other world leaders for a G-20 summit, focused on spurring global growth.

Related NPR Stories

Parallels

Why Deflation Is Such A Big Worry For Europe

Europe's Short-Term Economic Fixes Can't Solve Long-Term Problems

Lew says the United States has a huge stake in the success of its first-world trading partners.

"The United States exports more than $2 trillion of goods and services to the world," he said. "It is very much in our economic and national interest when the rest of the global economy is growing."

The Obama administration is in a strange position. Just last week, it suffered big political setbacks in domestic elections. But on the world stage, Obama leads the most impressive economy. In the most recent quarter, this country grew at 3.5 percent — a very robust pace for a mature economy.

In the United States, the stock market is booming, budget deficits are melting away, corporate profits are breaking records and the unemployment rate is falling, down to nearly half the level set five years ago.

U.S. success shows "the resilience and determination of the American people," Lew said. "It also reflects the ease of starting businesses, our highly competitive product markets, and the ability to reap rewards from entrepreneurship."

Meanwhile, Japan's economy is stuck, with its inflation-adjusted growth rate running at less than 1 percent over the past decade. Europe may be on the brink of its third recession in six years.

Lew says that to grow, countries need a "comprehensive policy approach" that involves not only better fiscal and monetary decisions, but "structural" changes. When he talks about "structure," he's referring to the policy frameworks that hold back growth.

So, for example, in Japan, structural reform would mean: changing laws that prevent young immigrants from replacing retired workers; helping women with children stay in the workforce and allowing more competition among companies. In Europe, it would mean making the banking sector less secretive.

In addition to speaking in Seattle, Lew talked with NPR's Robert Siegel, host of All Things Considered, by phone. Lew said that while he is offering advice to other countries, he knows this country still has many of its own problems to solve.

For one thing, "wages are not growing," he said. To help fix that, Congress should raise the federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour, he said. For low-income families, "the minimum wage makes a big difference," he said.

In addition, Congress should start spending more on rebuilding infrastructure, which would boost construction jobs, and pass laws to reform the tax code and increase trade, he said. "We still have work to do," he said.

The global economy rolls along more smoothly when it's not riding a unicycle. It needs additional wheels for momentum and stability.

That is, in effect, what Treasury Secretary Jack Lew is telling leaders of other advanced nations.

In a get-rolling speech Wednesday to the World Affairs Council, Lew said the U.S. economy is moving at a good pace these days, but needs support from the flat economies of Japan and the European Union.

Other countries cannot "rely on the United States to grow fast enough to make up for weak growth in major world economies," he said.

When Europe and Japan get too weak, then demand drops for made-in-America products and services, and the U.S. dollar gets too valuable, making life tougher for U.S. exporters.

"The world is stronger if we all take steps to bolster domestic demand," Lew said.

He spoke in Seattle, where he was doing a warm-up act ahead of the main event this weekend in Australia. In Brisbane, he will join President Obama and other world leaders for a G-20 summit, focused on spurring global growth.

Related NPR Stories

Parallels

Why Deflation Is Such A Big Worry For Europe

Europe's Short-Term Economic Fixes Can't Solve Long-Term Problems

Lew says the United States has a huge stake in the success of its first-world trading partners.

"The United States exports more than $2 trillion of goods and services to the world," he said. "It is very much in our economic and national interest when the rest of the global economy is growing."

The Obama administration is in a strange position. Just last week, it suffered big political setbacks in domestic elections. But on the world stage, Obama leads the most impressive economy. In the most recent quarter, this country grew at 3.5 percent — a very robust pace for a mature economy.

In the United States, the stock market is booming, budget deficits are melting away, corporate profits are breaking records and the unemployment rate is falling, down to nearly half the level set five years ago.

U.S. success shows "the resilience and determination of the American people," Lew said. "It also reflects the ease of starting businesses, our highly competitive product markets, and the ability to reap rewards from entrepreneurship."

Meanwhile, Japan's economy is stuck, with its inflation-adjusted growth rate running at less than 1 percent over the past decade. Europe may be on the brink of its third recession in six years.

Lew says that to grow, countries need a "comprehensive policy approach" that involves not only better fiscal and monetary decisions, but "structural" changes. When he talks about "structure," he's referring to the policy frameworks that hold back growth.

So, for example, in Japan, structural reform would mean: changing laws that prevent young immigrants from replacing retired workers; helping women with children stay in the workforce and allowing more competition among companies. In Europe, it would mean making the banking sector less secretive.

In addition to speaking in Seattle, Lew talked with NPR's Robert Siegel, host of All Things Considered, by phone. Lew said that while he is offering advice to other countries, he knows this country still has many of its own problems to solve.

For one thing, "wages are not growing," he said. To help fix that, Congress should raise the federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour, he said. For low-income families, "the minimum wage makes a big difference," he said.

In addition, Congress should start spending more on rebuilding infrastructure, which would boost construction jobs, and pass laws to reform the tax code and increase trade, he said. "We still have work to do," he said.