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Look at your paycheck.

Chances are good you won't see much more there than you did in the summer of 2008 — just before the financial crisis hit. Average private-sector earnings are $24.53 an hour now, unchanged from 2008, after adjusting for inflation.

So most likely, you haven't felt yourself moving up for years.

Now, that may be changing.

On Friday, the Labor Department said that its latest wage-and-salary index reading showed a 2.3 percent rise over the 12 months ended in September. And the Commerce Department's monthly measure of personal income also ticked up slightly.

"Even a minimal increase in wage growth is a sign of welcome improvement in the labor market," Lindsey Piegza, chief economist for Sterne Agee, wrote in her analysis.

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Many economists say bigger raises may be coming soon. "We expect this trend of rising wages will continue and provide the fuel for an economic expansion that could last several more years," Bernard Baumohl, chief economist for The Economic Outlooks Group, wrote in his assessment.

But even if a major raise isn't on your horizon, five factors will be helping stretch your current paycheck:

Cheap gasoline. In the summer of 2008, gas was $4 a gallon. On Friday, AAA said the national average, as of Saturday, will be below $3 for the first time in four years. The auto club says that downshift will save consumers $250 million a day, compared with earlier this summer when gas was $3.68.

A strong dollar. The U.S. dollar had more global purchasing power back in the early 2000s. Then its value fell compared with other currencies, reaching a bottom in 2011. Today, the dollar is strong again, allowing U.S. consumers to purchase imported goods and foods at lower prices. That change will help keep inflation low for Americans.

Low interest rates. Millions of homeowners have been able to get extraordinarily cheap mortgages. Just before the financial crisis, 30-year fixed mortgages were being offered at 6.5 percent. Today, rates are below 4 percent, allowing homeowners to lower their monthly payments.

Fierce retail competition. For shoppers, this should be a great holiday season because of cutthroat pricing. Wal-Mart told the Wall Street Journal it is testing a plan to match online prices. Best Buy and Target already are doing that, and Target is even offering free shipping on everything through Dec. 20. Analysts expect brutal price competition all around.

Cheaper food (eventually). Corn harvests were enormous this year, sending prices much lower. In 2008, a bushel cost around $8; now it's about half that. It takes a long while for low commodity prices to work their way through the food chain, but the huge corn harvest should help cut animal feed prices, which eventually could tone down the high beef prices that have hurt shoppers.

Of those five factors, perhaps none lifts consumers' spirits more than those tumbling gas prices.

"Consumers are experiencing 'sticker delight' as gas prices unexpectedly drop below $3 in much of the country," AAA Chief Executive Bob Darbelnet said. "Lower gas prices are a boon to the economy — just in time for holiday travel and shopping."

Jose Ferreira, a real estate developer filling his tank at a Boston gas station, did indeed express delight with the price decline. "People struggle to survive, you know. If you can save some money, it's great for everybody," he said.

And while cheap gas can brighten your near-term financial situation, the stock market's surge can help with the long term. On Friday, the Dow Jones industrial average closed at 17,390, up 195, to hit a record high. On the same date six years ago during the financial crisis, it was at 9,325.

Material from The Associated Press was used in this report.

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To clamp down on health care costs, a growing number of employers and insurers are putting limits on how much they'll pay for certain medical services such as knee replacements, lab tests and complex imaging.

A recent study found that savings from such moves may be modest, however, and some analysts question whether "reference pricing," as it's called, is good for consumers.

The California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS), which administers the health insurance benefits for 1.4 million state workers, retirees and their families, has one of the more established reference pricing systems.

More than three years ago, CalPERS began using reference pricing for elective knee and hip replacements, two common procedures for which hospital prices varied widely without discernible differences in quality, says Ann Boynton, who helps set benefits policies at CalPERS.

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Working with Anthem Blue Cross, the CalPERS set $30,000 as the reference price for those two surgeries in its preferred provider organization plan.

Members who get surgery at one of the 52 hospitals that charge $30,000 or less pay only their plan's regular cost-sharing. If member choose to use an in-network hospital that charges more than the reference price, however, they're on the hook for the entire amount over $30,000, and the extra spending doesn't count toward their annual maximum out-of-pocket limit, Boynton says.

"We're not worried about people not getting the care they need," says Boynton. "They have access to good hospitals; they're just getting it at a reasonable price."

In two years, CalPERS saved nearly $6 million on those two procedures, and members saved $600,000 in lower cost sharing, according to research published last year by James C. Robinson, a professor of health economics at the University of California, Berkeley, and director of the Berkeley Center for Health Technology. Most of the savings came from price reductions at expensive hospitals.

The agency recently set caps on how much it would spend for cataract surgery, colonoscopies and arthroscopic surgery, Boynton says.

Those who have studied reference pricing say it is most appropriate for common, non-emergency procedures or tests that vary widely in price but are generally comparable in quality. Research has generally shown that higher prices for medical services don't mean their quality is higher. Setting a reference price steers consumers to high-quality doctors, hospitals, labs and imaging centers that perform well for the price, proponents say.

Others point out that reference pricing doesn't necessarily save employers a lot of money, however. A study released earlier this month by the National Institute for Health Care Reform examined the 2011 claims data for 528,000 autoworkers and their dependents, both active and retired. It analyzed roughly 350 high-volume and/or high-priced inpatient and ambulatory medical services that reference pricing might reasonably be applied to.

The overall potential savings was 5 percent, the study found.

"It was surprising that even with all that pricing variation, reference pricing doesn't have a more dramatic impact on spending," says Chapin White, a senior policy researcher at RAND and lead author of the study.

Even though the results may be modest, a growing number of very large companies are incorporating reference pricing, according to benefits consultant Mercer's annual employer health insurance survey. The percentage of employers with 10,000 or more employees that used reference pricing grew from 10 percent in 2012 to 15 percent in 2013, the survey found. Thirty percent said they were considering adding reference pricing, the survey found. Among employers with 500 or fewer workers, adoption was flat at 10 percent in 2013, compared with 11 percent in 2012.

This spring, the Obama administration said that large group and self-insured health plans could use reference pricing.

The health law sets limits on how much consumers have to pay out of pocket annually for in-network care before insurance picks up the whole tab — in 2015, it's $6,600 for an individual and $13,200 for a family plan. But if consumers choose providers whose prices are higher than a plan's reference price, those amounts don't count toward the out-of-pocket maximum, the administration guidance said.

Leaving consumers on the hook for amounts over the reference price needlessly drags them into the battle between providers and health plans over prices, says White.

"You expect the health plan to do a few things: negotiate reasonable prices with providers, and not to enter into network contracts with providers who provide bad quality care," White says. "Reference pricing is kind of an admission that health plans have failed on one or both of those fronts."

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With gas and oil prices plunging, among those benefiting are airlines. With fuel prices down, profits are up, but that doesn't mean you'll be able to find cheap airfares, especially over the holidays.

The airline industry is predicting more people will take to the skies over Thanksgiving than any year since the start of the recession.

The weather in Chicago is not quite frightful yet, but the snow and cold is coming; so warm weather destinations for the holidays sound appealing.

Those are the kinds of inquiries travel agent Giselle Sanchez of Mena Travel is fielding. After a few very slow years during the recession, Sanchez says business is really picking up.

"We are seeing a lot of families wanting to take trips and planning their trips, so we do see more people wanting to travel now," Sanchez says. "Is it back to where it was before? Not yet, but I think it's getting there."

But that means planes are packed tight, and because demand is rising, fares are up, especially over the two weeks when schools are out over the Christmas and New Year's holidays.

Thanksgiving weekend fares are higher than last year, too, especially if you want to fly on the Wednesday before and Sunday after Thanksgiving.

“ So far this year, airlines have earned more than $2 billion more than at this time last year — but that doesn't mean passengers can expect air fares to drop anytime soon.

The airline industry is expecting 24.6 million passengers on planes around Thanksgiving, up 1.5 percent over last year. And a whopping 2.6 million of those travelers will fly on that Sunday.

"Sunday is not only expected to be the busiest day of the period, but if last year's an indication, it should be the busiest day of the entire calendar year," said John Heimlich, chief economist for the industry group Airlines for America.

In a conference call with reporters this past week, Heimlich noted that dropping fuel prices are pushing up profits. So far this year, airlines have earned more than $2 billion more than at this time last year.

But he says that doesn't mean we can expect air fares to drop anytime soon.

"The first priority is to make sure you have strong financial health, can pay down your bills and invest in the future and weather the next recession," Heimlich said.

Back at Mena Travel in Chicago, Giselle Sanchez is looking to find a bargain around Christmas.

"See all these zeroes? When you see zeros in all inventory, that means it's a pretty full flight," she says.

Sanchez says she can still find some low fares, even around Thanksgiving — if you fly on certain days.

But with the convenient flights packed, to get the deals, you might need to take some extra days off.

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The dustiest portion of my home library includes the 1980s books — about how Japan's economy would dominate the world.

And then there are the 1990s books — about how the Y2K computer glitch would end the modern era.

Go up one more shelf for the late 2000s books — about oil "peaking." The authors claimed global oil production was reaching a peak and would soon decline, causing economic chaos.

The titles include Peak Oil and the Second Great Depression, Peak Oil Survival and When Oil Peaked.

When those books were written, worldwide oil drillers were producing about 85 million barrels a day. Now they are pumping about 93 million barrels.

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Despite growing violence in the Middle East, oil supplies just keep rising.

At the same time, the growth rate for demand has been shrinking. This week, the International Energy Agency cut its forecast for oil-demand growth for this year and next. Turns out, oil demand growth — not production — is what appears to have peaked.

Now prices are plunging, down around 25 percent since June.

What did the forecasters get so wrong? In large measure, their mistake was in failing to appreciate the impact of a relatively new technology, hydraulic fracturing, or fracking.

Because of fracking, oil is being extracted from shale formations in Texas and North Dakota. Production has shot up so quickly in those areas that the United States is now the world's largest source of oil and natural gas liquids, overtaking Saudi Arabia and Russia.

This new competition has shocked OPEC. Members say they want to maintain their current market share, so they are keeping up production and even boosting it.

Bottom line: The peak of production is nowhere on the horizon.

So are the authors of "peaking" books now slapping themselves in the head and admitting they had it all wrong?

Some are, at least a bit.

Energy analyst Chris Nelder wrote a book in 2008 titled Profit from the Peak. The cover's inside flap said: "There is no doubt that oil production will peak, if it hasn't already, and that all other fossil fuels will peak soon after."

In a phone discussion about his prediction, Nelder said "my expectation has not materialized."

The surge in oil production in Texas and North Dakota "has really surprised everyone," he said. "If you had told me five years ago we'd be producing more oil today, I would have said, 'No way.' I did not believe at all that this would happen."

But while he acknowledges that oil has not peaked yet, he says it might soon because "oil is trapped on a narrow ledge" where it must stand on stable prices. Holding the price of a barrel steady around $110 for years allows energy companies to invest in fracking operations.

Over the past three years, those are exactly the conditions drillers have enjoyed. Oil was sitting pretty on a stable plateau of roughly $110 a barrel. But now, as global growth slows, the price is plunging, down to around $83 per barrel.

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"China is cooling off quite a bit. Much of Europe is slipping back towards recession," Nelder said. If oil prices stay low for long, frackers may need to stand down. "There is a lower level [in price] where they just can't make money," he said.

And with OPEC pumping so much oil now to hold down prices, maybe they are using up their supplies more quickly. "Depletion never sleeps," he said.

So perhaps Nelder has been wrong so far, but could be right before too long.

That's what Kenneth Worth thinks. He's the author of Peak Oil and the Second Great Depression, a 2010 book. He says the fracking boom has been so frenzied in this decade that drillers may have extracted the cheapest oil already. With fracking, oil supplies "deplete very rapidly. You have to keep drilling really fast," he said.

With prices now so low, the money to keep up the frenzy may not be there.

So maybe the "peaking" predictions weren't wrong, just premature. Then again, at some point, any forecast can turn out to be right, he says. "If you take enough of a timeline, eventually we're all dead," Worth noted.

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