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It took a few hours for some Cubans to realize the magnitude of President Obama's announcement on Wednesday about changes in the relationship between the U.S. and Cuba, according to Cuban blogger Yoani Snchez.

Why? Because they were at the market, buying fish. "It is important to also say that the news had fierce competition, like the arrival of fish to the rationed market, after years of disappearance," wrote Sanchez, who is perhaps the most celebrated dissident on the island.

As you've probably heard — or seen, if you've traveled to Cuba — food (and, at times, the lack thereof) remains one of the most striking emblems of Cuba's dysfunctional economic system. Let's just say that the agreement between Obama and Cuban President Raul Castro will probably eventually mean big changes for the food supply in Cuba.

But if you're picturing Cubans sipping Frappuccinos at Starbucks in Havana, or a Carnival cruise ship full of American tourists unloading in the port and filing into a gleaming new McDonald's, hold your horses. Such massive changes are, in theory, more possible than they were on Tuesday, but not before our two governments work out a huge number of issues embedded in our super complex trade relationship, analysts say.

Obama and Castro's speeches were significant and expansive, says John Kavulich, president of the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, but "the details are what matter. What people tend to forget is it's not what the U.S. wants to do to or for Cuba. It's about what Cuba feels is in its interest."

Most Cubans depend on monthly rations (limited amounts of deeply subsidized food) of rice, beans, coffee and a few other staple foods for their sustenance. There's also a thriving black market for food, supplying the wealthy and the foreigners with gourmet items like blue cheese and smoked salmon smuggled in by suitcase. (I traveled to Cuba in 2003 and 2007, first on a person-to-person license and then on a freelance journalist visa. Like so many other American visitors, I was utterly bewitched by the people, the music, the rum. But I lost weight there — probably because candy bars and other snacks were so hard to come by.)

Of course, Cuba is far more food secure than many of its similarly impoverished neighbors in Latin America like Honduras and Haiti. But animal (and fish) protein is in extremely limited supply, and to buy food, Cubans have to wrestle with a "jigsaw puzzle" — different markets and currencies for different food products.

Cuba imports about 80 percent of its food, which costs the government $2 billion a year. Since 2000, a solid chunk of that has come from the U.S. In 2013, American firms sold $348 million worth of agricultural goods to Cuba, according to the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council. The top three products? Frozen chicken, soybean meal (for animal feed) and corn.

Wednesday's announcement was not the end of the embargo, of course. But Obama's new approach to Cuba includes "expanded sales and exports of certain goods and services from the U.S. to Cuba." That includes agricultural products, from commodities like rice and beans to butter.

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Banana growers at a market on the outskirts of Havana, Cuba, on Sept. 30, 2013. Cuba currently imports few fruits and vegetables from the U.S., but the American Farm Bureau says the change in relations may allow for new trade opportunities. Ramon Espinosa/AP hide caption

itoggle caption Ramon Espinosa/AP

Banana growers at a market on the outskirts of Havana, Cuba, on Sept. 30, 2013. Cuba currently imports few fruits and vegetables from the U.S., but the American Farm Bureau says the change in relations may allow for new trade opportunities.

Ramon Espinosa/AP

And for U.S. agricultural producers, the most important part of Wednesday's announcement was Obama's call to lift restrictions on financial transactions for food products, says David Salmonsen, a trade specialist with the American Farm Bureau.

Currently, any agricultural producer who wants to sell to Cuba has to get cash upfront from the Cuban government before shipping, and the money exchange must be handled through a third-party bank, which means all kinds of extra transaction costs.

If the Treasury Department and Commerce Department go along with Obama's order, then those producers will now be able to do business more directly with the Cuban government and its banks, says Salmonsen.

Without those extra transaction costs, certain U.S. producers that don't currently sell to Cuba — like fruit and vegetables producers — may finally be able to offer the Cuban government a competitive price. Or rice from the Southeast U.S.: Cuba used to buy it, until we were out-competed by Brazil and Vietnam.

Cargill, for one, says it's optimistic about the opportunities. So is the American Soybean Association.

"Depending on how it develops, it could put our producers back into a more normal trading relationship with Cuba, so that the whole supply chain evolves, and demand rises as barriers are reduced and eliminated," says Salmonsen.

But as Kavulich points out, food isn't necessarily Cuba's biggest priority: Investments in infrastructure may be more desperately needed.

Still, "there are opportunities" for food companies, he says, but what happens when the "Cubans say, 'That's all well and good, but we need help with financing?' The risk of doing business with the Cuban government is huge."

Cuba's government has considerable trade deficits with other nations, but little with the U.S. If American businesses want to sell more to Cuba, they might find themselves waiting a while to get paid, he says.

The big trade picture aside, the outlook for Cuban cuisine is also a bit murky. As I reported in 2012, Cuban chefs haven't been able to incorporate many modern cooking techniques, or exotic ingredients. (I don't think sous vides machines can get past the embargo.) So chefs may have to wait a while before they can import some of the American ingredients they covet.

As Sanchez wrote, Wednesday's announcement "is just the beginning." It's tempting to get excited about the future of Cuban food, but "keep the corks in the bottles," she says.

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Among the changes to U.S. restrictions on Cuba President Obama announced Wednesday was a relaxation of the rules barring U.S. banks from doing business there.

Americans traveling in Cuba will now be able to use their credit cards and ATM cards, but many U.S. banks see the new rules as something of a legal minefield.

Even before Wednesday's announcement, the trade embargo with Cuba wasn't absolute. The government allowed U.S. citizens to sell certain kinds of agricultural and medical products to Cuba under special license, but many companies were reluctant to do so.

The government has long barred U.S. banks from doing business in Cuba, meaning anyone hoping to sell products there had to find an intermediary bank in Cuba to process the trade. It's a complicated process, and Julia Sweig of the Council on Foreign Relations says a lot of banks decided it wasn't worth the trouble.

"Cuba has to tie itself in knots in order to find financial or business institutions that are willing to pay the additional markup to do business with it," she says.

The new rules will allow U.S. banks to form direct relationships with banks in Cuba. They will also make the process of paying for goods traded with the country a lot easier.

"So these changes are potentially seismic in that they would make a lot simpler, a lot more direct and a lot cheaper, all of these financial transactions," says Ted Henken, a professor at Baruch College and author of Entrepreneurial Cuba: The Changing Policy Landscape.

And yet, many banks are looking at these changes with caution.

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The U.S. has trade embargos against several countries including Iran and North Korea, and in recent years the U.S. government has pursued banks that violate them aggressively. In July, the French bank BNP Paribas agreed to pay a $9 billion fine for processing transactions for clients in several embargoed countries including Cuba.

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Polls Show Cuban-American Views On U.S.-Cuba Relations Are Nuanced

"In general, banks have been shaken very deeply by recent enforcement actions and are disinclined to dip their feet into what they see as shark-infested waters," says Clif Burns, an attorney who specializes in sanctions.

Right now many U.S. banks are waiting to see the text of the new regulations, says David Schwartz, president and CEO of the Florida International Bankers Association.

"Banks are going to analyze very closely the regulations that do come out to determine how much leeway that does give them, how does that reduce the risk of doing that business?" he says.

But Schwartz also acknowledges that the relaxation of the Cuban embargo is an opportunity for banks, even if they're cautious about taking advantage of it.

banking

Cuba

Pennsylvania's fracking boom has led to record-breaking natural gas production, but its neighbor, New York, announced Wednesday it was banning the practice. Industry and environmental groups say New York's decision could be good for Pennsylvania.

New York's ban comes six years after the state placed a temporary moratorium on fracking in order to study the gas drilling technique. Now, officials question fracking's economic benefits and cite environmental risks.

"There are many red flags because scientific issues have not yet been comprehensively studied through rigorous scientific research at this time," says Howard Zucker, New York's acting health commissioner.

George Stark, a spokesman for Houston-based Cabot Oil and Gas, says New Yorkers who fear the process just don't understand it. The company operates many of the most productive wells in Pennsylvania.

"Our industry — this entire episode — is saving many farms. So the farmers that I've been in contact with endorse and embrace hydraulic fracturing," Stark says.

Pennsylvania is now dotted with more than 7,000 active wells.

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A fracking rig in Butler County, Pa., in 2013. Pennsylvania is now dotted with more than 7,000 active wells. Jason Cohn/MCT/Landov hide caption

itoggle caption Jason Cohn/MCT/Landov

A fracking rig in Butler County, Pa., in 2013. Pennsylvania is now dotted with more than 7,000 active wells.

Jason Cohn/MCT/Landov

Christopher Robart, an analyst with IHS Energy, says New York's ban will have little to no impact on drillers already at work in nearby states.

"They can do things much more economically and efficiently in those parts where there already is money and already are investments in the ground than in New York, for instance, where they'd have to start from scratch," he says.

Industry groups say they've felt like New York has had an "unwelcome" mat out for years.

To Stephanie Catarino Wissman, who heads Pennsylvania's division of the American Petroleum Institute, New York's loss is Pennsylvania's gain.

"I mean, I would say to New Yorkers, 'Come to Pennsylvania and take advantage of these jobs that are available with this well-paying industry,' " she says.

Meanwhile, environmental groups in Pennsylvania cheered the decision.

"It's a great day for the people in the shale fields whose experience has been repeatedly denied by the industry," says Joanne Kilgour, who heads Sierra Club's Pennsylvania chapter.

Those experiences include things like tainted water supplies, unhealthy air emissions and the industrialization of rural landscapes.

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With Gas Boom, Pennsylvania Fears New Toxic Legacy

Long After Fracking Stops, The Noise Lives On

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Despite New York's decision, both sides of the drilling debate are worried about what's next for Pennsylvania. The state's newly elected Democratic governor, Tom Wolf, made his central campaign pledge about levying a new tax on the gas industry.

But Kilgour and other environmentalists worry that could make the state even more reliant on fracking.

"What we want to make sure that we don't do is continue to rely on these boom-bust, single-source economies that are inherent to the extraction of fossil fuels," Kilgour says.

The industry has lobbied heavily against the tax, calling it a job killer.

Wolf opposes a ban on fracking but wants to strengthen regulations. And he plans to create a new registry for public health complaints. "I think this could be a really great thing for Pennsylvania's economy. It could create great jobs," Wolf says. "So I want to have my cake and eat it, too. I don't want to do what New York did."

When he takes office next month, Wolf will face a $2 billion budget shortfall. He's counting on Pennsylvania's gas to help solve the state's fiscal woes.

Sophie Fillires' uneven relationship drama If You Don't, I Will opens with a scene of biting dialogue between Pierre (Mathieu Almaric) and Pomme (Emmanuelle Devos), whose marriage is seemingly on its last legs.

At once discomfiting in its cruelty and laughable in its absurdity, the scene begins with Pierre impatiently demanding that he and Pomme leave a photography exhibit shortly after arriving. Pomme points out she still hasn't talked to her friend, the photographer. "He knows you came. Isn't that what matters?" Pierre answers. Their short argument ends when Pomme knocks one of the photographs off the wall, and the two run out of the gallery having purchased the expensive work out of guilt. "Consider it a birthday gift," Pierre says before running to catch a bus, almost leaving Pomme behind on the street, and then denying any wrongdoing.

"What have we become?" Pomme asks as they ride home, seemingly opening the door for an emotional disclosure on Pierre's part.

"Your parents," Pierre curtly responds.

It's worth recounting the scene in detail what is present here is what's absent in the rest of the movie. Only the film's ending, which also consists of a long conversation between Pomme and Pierre, holds a viewer's attention and proves as incisive as this opening. You might conclude from just these two scenes that If You Don't, I Will documents a married couple's journey from denigration and mistrust to mutual understanding and honesty. But between these endpoints, that journey is poorly conceived.

Some of the problems along the way, for instance, come in the form of hollow secondary characters. An awkward conversation that Pierre and Pomme have with a friend-of-a-friend at a party and a series of interactions between Pierre and Mellie (Josphine De La Baume), a young single mom with whom Pomme suspects he is having an affair, suffer from similarly overworked attempts at humor. There are repeated stabs at juvenile, almost slapstick comedy that, apart from one or two exceptions, like the shattered photo in the opening, never land. More often than, the style clashes with the otherwise dour mood of the movie's failing-marriage narrative, in large part because many of the jokes, like the ones launched at the expense of Mellie's son's psychomotor problems, aim at the easiest targets, leaving the final products simplistic if not offensive.

The film also stumbles over Pomme's period of reflection on the future of her marriage. After fighting with him for the umpteenth time on an afternoon hike, Pomme refuses to go home with Pierre and instead spends the next several nights camping out in the woods, surviving off the meager supplies she had with her. Her decision feels illogical, if not ludicrous—as does Pierre's refusal to respond to the situation for several days—but most of all it feels contrived, written in to the script for the sake of a broad thematic point. Rather than proceeding reasonably from Pierre and Pomme's conduct in the first half of the movie, this feels like a slapdash representation of the stubborn behavior that marital disputes can produce.

Given all that, it's a testament to Amalric and Devos as actors, and also to Fillires as a dialogue writer, that the final scene of the movie still strikes a satisfying emotional tone, one that puts a fitting capstone to the relationship that we saw on display in the film's first scene. And like that opening, the ending makes you wonder what kind of film might have arisen had Fillires stuck Pierre and Pomme in a room together for an extended period, a la Before Midnight. Such hypotheticals, though, are worthless. In art, like in marriage, we're stuck with the story at hand, not the one we hoped for at first impression.