Ïîïóëÿðíûå ñîîáùåíèÿ

среда

As 2015 began, the U.S. economy posted its weakest performance in a year, growing at a 0.2 percent annual pace. That's a sharp slowdown from the fourth quarter and well below the 1 percent rate economists had projected.

The deceleration — from 2.2 percent growth in the fourth quarter — comes as the Federal Reserve is debating how soon it will begin to boost historically low interest rates. Policymakers at the central bank are due to announce the results of their latest two-day meeting in Washington at 2 p.m. ET.

Seasonally adjusted annual rates. NPR hide caption

itoggle caption NPR

Reuters reported that the "weak growth, though probably temporary, reduces the chances of a June interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve."

Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit in London, told Reuters: "A stalling of U.S. economic growth at the start of the year rules out any imminent hiking of interest rates by the Fed."

Employment growth has also slowed, with the economy adding just 126,000 jobs in March, though the jobless rate held steady at 5.5 percent.

The Commerce Department said in its "advance" estimate of gross domestic product Wednesday that the slowdown reflected a deceleration in consumer spending, exports and investments by companies.

And The Wall Street Journal said the first-quarter slowdown seemed to repeat a recent winter pattern:

"Last year, economists pinned much of the blame for a bad first quarter — GDP shrank 2.1% — on unusually harsh weather. This year, multiple factors appear to be at work, including another bout of blizzards, disruptions at West Coast ports, the stronger dollar's effect on exports and the impact of cheaper oil."

Given the consistent pattern of weak first-quarter growth, some economists suspect there's a problem with how the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis does the seasonal adjustments for the first-quarter GDP report. The New York Times reported last week in its Upshot blog:

"It isn't a surprise that the economy has seasonal ups and downs. After all, summer vacations slow some industries, while others are chilled by winter snow, and the annual parade of holidays shifts spending throughout the year. But the government's economic statistics are meant to adjust for these predictable seasonal swings, through a process known as seasonal adjustment. But it appears that these adjustments have failed to do the job."

Personal spending grew at a 1.9 percent pace in the first quarter, less than half the 4.4 percent pace of the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

Jason Furman, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said in a blog post that consumers generally haven't been using the savings from lower gasoline prices to spend on other things. But, he said, that leaves room for a spending rebound later this year.

"Rising saving suggests continued improvement in households' financial situation," Furman wrote. "This will help foster conditions for stronger consumer spending growth over the course of the next year, especially in light of the fact that consumer confidence measures are nearly the highest they have been since before the financial crisis."

The first-quarter GDP numbers are subject to two more revisions, with the next one due May 29.

GDP

Federal Reserve

interest rates

The Republican-controlled Florida legislature — at odds over the question of whether to expand Medicaid — abruptly ended its session three days early on Tuesday, leaving hundreds of bills that are unrelated to health care unfinished.

Andy Gardiner, president of Florida's state Senate, says he's disappointed with the House's decision to stop negotiating and leave town.

"The House didn't win, the Senate didn't win and the taxpayers lost," Gardiner says. "There are a lot of issues that aren't going to make it, and it's unfortunate."

Shots - Health News

Florida Leads Insurance Sign-Ups, Despite Political Opposition To Overhaul

But Steve Crisafulli, speaker of the Florida House, says it was the right thing to do.

"We've made every effort we can to negotiate with the Senate on a budget," he says, "and at this time they're standing strong on Medicaid expansion."

Shortly after the adjournment, Gov. Rick Scott, a Republican, filed a lawsuit against the federal government over health care funding — a move that was promptly derided by the leadership of the state Senate.

"I don't think it changes anything," says the chairman of Florida's Senate appropriations committee, Tom Lee. "Once he announced he was going to file a lawsuit against the federal government, I think everyone sort of shut down and lawyered up, and all that sort of thing."

Here's a brief overview of the fight: The Republican-led state House is firmly against Medicaid expansion, while the Republican-led state Senate supports it. Scott once supported expansion but is now against it. And the federal government raised the stakes of the battle by refusing to negotiate on the renewal of a $2 billion fund called the Low Income Pool, which reimburses hospitals for unpaid bills.

"The pool money was about helping low-income people have access [to health care]," U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Sylvia Burwell told northern Florida's WFSU in January. "I think we believe an important way to extend that coverage to low-income individuals is what passed in the Affordable Care Act ... this issue of Medicaid expansion."

The governor's lawsuit over the low income pool accuses the federal government of trying to coerce the state — requiring Florida to expand Medicaid or lose $2 billion. That sort of pressure was expressly forbidden by the U.S. Supreme Court, Scott says, when it upheld the federal health law in 2012.

i

Once a proponent of Medicaid's expansion under the Affordable Care Act, Florida Gov. Rick Scott is now trying to pressure Florida's Senate to abandon its support of expansion. Joe Raedle/Getty Images hide caption

itoggle caption Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Once a proponent of Medicaid's expansion under the Affordable Care Act, Florida Gov. Rick Scott is now trying to pressure Florida's Senate to abandon its support of expansion.

Joe Raedle/Getty Images

House appropriations chief Richard Corcoran recently delivered a 20-minute anti-Medicaid speech to fellow lawmakers that underscored his side's determination to block the expansion. "Here's my message to the Senate," he said. "They want us to come to the dance? We're not dancing. We're not dancing this session. We're not dancing next session. We're not dancing next summer — we're not dancing. And if you want to blow up the process because you think you have some right that doesn't exist? Have at it."

Now, the central task that state law requires of the legislature — to pass a budget— remains incomplete. Scott tried this week to pressure the legislature to the bargaining table to craft a budget. He threatened to veto Senate priorities, but the Senate remained unmoved.

Scott has said he will call the legislature back for a special session to complete the budget.

This story is part of NPR's partnership with WFSU and Kaiser Health News.

Obamacare

Affordable Care Act

Medicaid

Florida

вторник

As we reported earlier this month, a fascinating project called Blue Zones is documenting and disseminating the lifestyle secrets of the communities with the highest concentrations of centenarians in the world.

The people in these five regions in Europe, Latin America, Asia and the U.S. that live to be 100 have a lot going for them. Genes probably play a small role, but these folks also have strong social ties, tightly-knit families and lots of opportunity to exercise.

i

Blue Zones' Dan Buettner smells turmeric grown in Okinawa. Gianluca Colla/Courtesy of Blue Zones hide caption

itoggle caption Gianluca Colla/Courtesy of Blue Zones

Blue Zones' Dan Buettner smells turmeric grown in Okinawa.

Gianluca Colla/Courtesy of Blue Zones

As we were parsing through the dietary secrets of the Blue Zones, as described in author Dan Buettner's latest book, The Blues Zones Solution, we were struck by how essential tea drinking is in these regions. In fact, Buettner's Blue Zones Beverage Rule — a kind of guideline distilled from his 15 or so years of studying these places — is: "Drink coffee for breakfast, tea in the afternoon, wine at 5 p.m."

In Okinawa, Japan, for example, Buettner watched one 104-year-old "make jasmine tea, squatting in the corner and pouring hot water over tea leaves as the room filled with a delicate, floral aroma." Indeed, Okinawans call their tea shan-pien, or "tea with a bit of scent," which combines green tea leaves, jasmine flowers and a bit of turmeric.

And, of course, science has plenty to say about the healthful virtues of green tea. Researchers are most smitten with catechins, antoxidants that show up in green tea, as well as foods like cocoa. Why might they help so many Okinawans break 100? Catechins and other compounds in green tea can lower the risk of stroke, heart disease and several cancers. One review study also found that drinking green tea slightly boosts metabolism.

i

Ginger's golden cousin, turmeric, figures prominently in the Okinawan diet in both food and tea. Studies suggest it is a powerful antioxidant and anti-inflammatory. Gianluca Colla/Courtesy of Blue Zones hide caption

itoggle caption Gianluca Colla/Courtesy of Blue Zones

Ginger's golden cousin, turmeric, figures prominently in the Okinawan diet in both food and tea. Studies suggest it is a powerful antioxidant and anti-inflammatory.

Gianluca Colla/Courtesy of Blue Zones

If you find yourself on the island of Ikaria, the Greek Blue Zone in the middle of the Aegean, you won't be offered any tea made with tea leaves. Instead, Ikarians typically brew their daily cup of tea with just one fresh herb that they have picked themselves that day — either rosemary, wild sage, oregano, marjoram, mint or dandelion, all plants that may have anti-inflammatory properties.

Buettner tells The Salt that he took samples of Ikarian herbs to pharmacologists in Athens to have them analyzed. "Turns out, they were anti-inflammatories and mild, or mildly strong diuretics," which help lower blood pressure, he says. This could explain Ikaria's very low dementia rate, he adds, since high blood pressure is a risk factor for the disease.

The Salt

Health Benefits Of Tea: Milking It Or Not

According to Thea Parikos, an Ikarian who runs a guesthouse there, the people of the island use herbs and teas as medicine and will drink them for various ailments before going to see a doctor. (If the condition worsens, they will seek medical attention, she says.)

"We often drink a tea with friends or in the evenings," she tells us by email. "The teas we use are collected in the wild. We are not so enthusiastic on store-bought tea. We consider the wild plants to be of better quality."

Hear that? So rather than run to the store in search of Ikarian Longevity Tea (it doesn't exist), grow or buy fresh herbs and make your own tea with them.

In Sardinia, the preferred tea is milk thistle, a native wild plant that Buettner writes is said to "cleanse the liver." The plant's principal active ingredient, silymarin, is being analyzed by scientists as an antioxidant. One 2007 review paper noted that, "Promising results have been reported in the protective effect of milk thistle in certain types of cancer, and ongoing trials will provide more evidence about this effect." So those Sardinians, who've been drinking this tea for centuries, may have figured out one small hot fountain of youth.

If you want to get more tea into your routine, here's what Buettner recommends:

"Sip green tea all day; green tea usually contains about 25 percent as much caffeine as coffee and provides a steady stream of antioxidants.

Try a variety of herbal teas, such as rosemary, oregano or sage.

Sweeten teas lightly with honey, and keep them in a pitcher in the fridge for easy access in hot weather."

Tea Tuesdays is an occasional series exploring the science, history, culture and economics of this ancient brewed beverage.

blue zones

Tea Tuesdays

green tea

herbs

tea

When a major earthquake pummeled Kobe, Japan, in 1995, more than 6,000 people were killed, many buried as their traditional wooden homes collapsed under the weight of heavy, unstable tile roofs.

The quake's power was extraordinary and demonstrated Japan wasn't as prepared as it thought it was. Still, it was no match for Japanese resilience.

Many surviving families went directly to schools and spread out quilts in orderly rows in the gym. Boxed meals were handed out around the clock. Bottled water was abundant. The bathrooms remained clean. The trains kept running. The homeless were permitted to make phone calls anywhere in the world free of charge.

Almost immediately, it was clear Kobe would not be defined by the tremor. Kobe had one of the busiest container ports in the world before the quake. A year later, it was operating at the same level.

Earthquakes are equal opportunity destroyers, delivering death and destruction to rich and poor countries alike. Yet they seem cruelest when they flatten places like Nepal, which lacks the resources to prepare for or recover from a devastating tremor. It's not just a brief, cataclysmic event in Nepal. The aftershocks will last for years as the country struggles to return to where it was before the disaster.

When Nepal's earthquake hit, the first number everyone turned to was that awful magnitude number: 7.8.

But INFORM, which provides global risk assessment with sponsorship from the European Commission, has developed its own scale, calculating just how vulnerable 191 countries are when it comes to earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, hurricanes and other disasters.

The chart below shows that when it comes to likelihood of being hit by a quake, Japan maxes out at 10 on a scale of 10. Nepal is just a tick behind at 9.9.

But when other factors are incorporated — a country's wealth, emergency services, medical system, the quality of its government and general infrastructure — Japan has a relatively modest overall risk of 2.2 compared with Nepal's still unhealthy 5.3.

The chart also shows that the U.S. and Haiti face similar likelihoods of being hit by earthquakes, floods and tropical storms. But the consequences are likely to vary widely. More than 300,000 people died in Haiti's 2010 earthquake, and despite countless aid projects, reconstruction has moved at a glacial pace.

You can check out all 191 countries here.

The calculations involve a lot of guesswork but capture the way poor countries suffer doubly when disasters strike. The first is the disaster itself, and the second is the enormous long-term burden it places on nations ill-equipped to cope.

Nepal's per capita income is just $700 a year. Few buildings and homes were constructed to be earthquake resistant. Many that will be rebuilt are likely to be equally vulnerable.

Source: USGS

Credit: Alyson Hurt/NPR

The country is also riven by political fault lines as unstable as its geological ones. A Maoist insurgency was launched in the 1990s and eventually led to the abolition of Nepal's monarchy in 2008. The Maoists are now the largest political party in Nepal, and the country's defining political feature has been nonstop feuding in recent years.

IHS Global Insight estimates Nepal's reconstruction costs will be $5 billion over the next five years, requiring a large chunk of the country's resources.

Key sectors have been set back, like tourism, an industry that ranges from backpackers on a budget to mountain climbers paying tens of thousands of dollars for a chance to scale Mount Everest. Saturday's quake touched off an avalanche that killed at least 18 climbers. Last year, the brief climbing season was cut short last year after an avalanche that killed 13 on the mountain.

Aid pledges are already flowing into Nepal, raising the hope that buildings, roads and power systems can be rebuilt and at a higher quality. But there's little precedent for this. Long after the world's attention has moved on, most have struggled to rebuild.

Greg Myre is the international editor for NPR.org. Follow him @gregmyre1.

earthquakes

Nepal

Blog Archive