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Even though it's crept up in the past couple of months, the price of a gallon of gasoline is still about $1 less than it was a year ago. That's saving drivers $15 to $20 every time they fill up.

Economists were quite convinced late last year that would boost growth because consumers would go out and spend that extra money. But things have not unfolded exactly as forecast.

There's no doubt the plunge in oil prices and the lower costs for gasoline, heating oil and natural gas gave consumers a big windfall.

"They saved about $116 billion," says John Canally, chief economist at LPL Financial. He figures that means a savings of about $83 per month per household on average — or about $1,000 a year. Lots of economists predicted Americans would go out a spend most of that, but Canally says they didn't.

"Consumers, since oil prices peaked back in June, have done what they've been doing this entire recovery, which is essentially they've spent a little, they've saved a little and they've paid down some debt," he says.

i

Seasonally adjusted annual rates Avie Schneider/NPR/Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis hide caption

itoggle caption Avie Schneider/NPR/Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Seasonally adjusted annual rates

Avie Schneider/NPR/Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Canally says he thinks many Americans learned a lesson during the financial crisis and are now being more prudent with their money. But in the short run, that's meant less consumption and less economic growth. So the growth dividend from lower energy prices has been elusive.

"I don't think it's completely materialized," says Laura Rosner, U.S. economist at BNP Paribas. For one thing, she says, the negative effects of the energy bust came faster than expected, with quick cutbacks in exploration and drilling and big job losses. That was a drag on the economy. And wicked winter weather from Virginia to Maine kept the energy windfall cash in people's pockets.

"Actually, 20 percent of all U.S. households live in either the Mid-Atlantic or the Northeast," Rosner says.

That meant tens of millions of shoppers stayed at home and contributed to a near stall-out of growth in the first quarter — far underperforming hopes that the oil price windfall would fuel faster growth.

Rosner says she thinks there's another reason the benefits of the windfall have been muted: Americans have been skeptical that the low energy prices will be lasting.

The Two-Way

Will Slower U.S. Economy Make Fed Wait To Raise Rates?

Economy

Higher Wages, Lower Prices Give Consumers A Break

Economy

More Jobs, Less Inflation Drive Down 'Misery' — So Where's The Joy?

Economy

Higher Wages, Lower Prices Give Consumers A Break

"We're seeing evidence that consumers actually expect gasoline prices to rebound ... almost back to their prior levels within a year or two," she says. "So that's an important reason why they may not be spending more of the windfall, today."

While Rosner believes consumers have reacted cautiously up to now, she's seeing signs that they are ready to start spending more of the windfall.

"You know, really the consumer sentiment data show that consumers are feeling better about the outlook," she says "They're feeling more secure in their jobs and they're relatively optimistic."

Their added spending will help lift the U.S. growth rate this year, she says. Canally agrees, and he believes with more prudent U.S. consumers the current expansion will be longer-lasting.

gasoline

consumer spending

This is National Infrastructure Week in Washington, D.C. That's when serious policy wonks, along with the construction, labor groups and other related industries, hold conferences, raise awareness and maybe most important, lobby Congress on behalf of road, bridge and other brick and mortar and concrete improvements.

There is added urgency to their efforts this year, as federal highway building money is set to run out, probably sometime this summer, and so is the government's authority to spend what little money it has left.

At a kickoff speech, Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx said the challenge the government faces "is actually worse than last summer," when Congress provided a temporary boost to highways using money from general revenues.

That's because the authorization bill that actually gives the government the green light to spend those funds is set to expire on May 31 after which, Foxx warned, "we will not have the ability to spend the dollars we do have to support this nation's infrastructure. It is that serious."

Foxx noted there have been 32 short-term extensions of the highway bill over the past six years. This, he said, has led to "so much uncertainty at the federal level that it is crippling our system."

Lawmakers from both parties generally agree on the need to do something, but as usual these days in Washington, are unable to agree on the details. The federal gas tax is no longer keeping up with the demand for highway dollars. As The Hill newspaper points out:

"The gas tax, which is currently 18.4 cents-per-gallon, typically brings in about $34 billion. But the federal government typically spends about $50 billion on transportation projects.

"The gas tax has not been increased since 1993, and improvements in the fuel efficien[cy] of U.S. autos has sapped much of its purchasing power."

The Obama administration's preferred approach for transportation funding would tax U.S. companies' overseas profits. But it hasn't gained much traction either. How about Build America Bonds? That's a proposal in a new paper from The Hamilton Project, which suggests the bonds could be a short-term solution to the nation's infrastructure funding needs. More likely, Congress will come up with another short-term fix, kicking the proverbial can down the road.

Meanwhile, Transportation Secretary Foxx is taking Infrastructure Week out for a spin, with stops planned over the next several days in Tennessee, Iowa and California to push for highway and bridge funding.

Even though it's crept up in the past couple of months, the price of a gallon of gasoline is still about $1 less than it was a year ago. That's saving drivers $15 to $20 every time they fill up.

Economists were quite convinced late last year that would boost growth because consumers would go out and spend that extra money. But things have not unfolded exactly as forecast.

There's no doubt the plunge in oil prices and the lower costs for gasoline, heating oil and natural gas gave consumers a big windfall.

"They saved about $116 billion," says John Canally, chief economist at LPL Financial. He figures that means a savings of about $83 per month per household on average — or about $1,000 a year. Lots of economists predicted Americans would go out a spend most of that, but Canally says they didn't.

"Consumers, since oil prices peaked back in June, have done what they've been doing this entire recovery, which is essentially they've spent a little, they've saved a little and they've paid down some debt," he says.

i

Seasonally adjusted annual rates Avie Schneider/NPR/Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis hide caption

itoggle caption Avie Schneider/NPR/Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Seasonally adjusted annual rates

Avie Schneider/NPR/Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Canally says he thinks many Americans learned a lesson during the financial crisis and are now being more prudent with their money. But in the short run, that's meant less consumption and less economic growth. So the growth dividend from lower energy prices has been elusive.

"I don't think it's completely materialized," says Laura Rosner, U.S. economist at BNP Paribas. For one thing, she says, the negative effects of the energy bust came faster than expected, with quick cutbacks in exploration and drilling and big job losses. That was a drag on the economy. And wicked winter weather from Virginia to Maine kept the energy windfall cash in people's pockets.

"Actually, 20 percent of all U.S. households live in either the Mid-Atlantic or the Northeast," Rosner says.

That meant tens of millions of shoppers stayed at home and contributed to a near stall-out of growth in the first quarter — far underperforming hopes that the oil price windfall would fuel faster growth.

Rosner says she thinks there's another reason the benefits of the windfall have been muted: Americans have been skeptical that the low energy prices will be lasting.

The Two-Way

Will Slower U.S. Economy Make Fed Wait To Raise Rates?

Economy

Higher Wages, Lower Prices Give Consumers A Break

Economy

More Jobs, Less Inflation Drive Down 'Misery' — So Where's The Joy?

Economy

Higher Wages, Lower Prices Give Consumers A Break

"We're seeing evidence that consumers actually expect gasoline prices to rebound ... almost back to their prior levels within a year or two," she says. "So that's an important reason why they may not be spending more of the windfall, today."

While Rosner believes consumers have reacted cautiously up to now, she's seeing signs that they are ready to start spending more of the windfall.

"You know, really the consumer sentiment data show that consumers are feeling better about the outlook," she says "They're feeling more secure in their jobs and they're relatively optimistic."

Their added spending will help lift the U.S. growth rate this year, she says. Canally agrees, and he believes with more prudent U.S. consumers the current expansion will be longer-lasting.

gasoline

consumer spending

[Note: Listen to the audio above to hear a conversation I had with Pop Culture Happy Hour team member Stephen Thompson about the end of the show.]

Ahead of its fall programming presentation to advertisers in the afternoon, Fox announced Monday that the 15th season of American Idol, which will begin in January 2016, will be the last.

Ratings for Idol have slid precipitously over the last few seasons, but in the words of Joe Adalian at Vulture, "Idol was, for much of its run, the most dominant show on television — by a mile." It's hard to remember now, but there was a time when putting up a show against Idol was close to announcement that it was unimportant to whatever network was airing it. It was the broadcast television version of a stomping monster that took out small cities.

The original dream of propelling star after star into the heavens didn't pan out as producers might have hoped, but the show has its list of famous alums: winners Kelly Clarkson and Carrie Underwood went on to be straight-up superstars, Phillip Phillips grabbed on to the popularity of Mumford-and-Sons-y Americana as it flew by and did well for himself, other finalists like Fantasia Barrino and Constantine Maroulis went to Broadway, and a lot of others have had perfectly good careers putting out records even if they haven't been as widely recognized as the grandest of champions. Clay Aiken even ran for Congress. (And Jennifer Hudson! Who won an Oscar! And whom I originally forgot because that's how much I no longer associate her with this show.)

It seemed at one time like Idol was a show that would ebb and flow but never die, like Saturday Night Live. But Fox has other plans and other priorities, there's competition from other performance shows and other competition shows, and, as it turns out, very few things are Saturday Night Live.

So now, Ryan Seacrest will be the man who only seems to have 99 jobs. We'll have much, much more about fall schedules as this week of TV news progresses.