Most Virginians say they approve of the job that first-term GOP Gov. Bob McDonnell is doing, suggesting he'd have a good shot at re-election when his term expires at the end of this year.
But it's one-and-out for governors in Virginia, the only state that doesn't allow its chief executive to serve consecutive terms.
That's left the state with a governor's race that has many voters shaking their heads and asking, "How did we end up with these two?"
"These two" are Democrat Terry McAuliffe, 55, a Clinton-era fundraiser extraordinaire and former Democratic National Committee chairman who got walloped in a party primary for governor in 2009; and Republican Ken Cuccinelli, 44, the state attorney general whose conservatism far outflanks most on the right of the political spectrum.
"We've got Bill Clinton's big-money man versus a social issues extremist," says the University of Virginia's Larry Sabato. The frank assessment may offend true believers, but resonates with a wide swath of Virginia voters.
There may be a third candidate. McDonnell's pick as his successor, Republican Lt. Gov. Bob Bolling, 55, suspended his campaign after the party decided to choose its candidate at a convention instead of holding a primary. The move favored Cuccinelli.
But Bolling has kept everyone guessing about whether he'll run as an independent.
This all in a state that President Obama has won twice, where changing demographics have created a true swing state, but where voters in recent history have picked a governor of the opposite party of the president.
"There's a history that the party that loses the White House wins the governor's race," says Peter Brown of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "And the electorate this year will be older and whiter than it was last year."
"That's why Cuccinelli has a shot," Brown says.
Disenchanted Voters
The results of two polls released this week reflected Virginia voters' current ennui, if not enmity.
Both early surveys found a close race — and something else: Voters don't much like Cuccinelli, and they don't know McAuliffe.
A Quinnipiac University poll had the two candidates essentially tied; a Public Policy Polling survey had McAuliffe up by 5 percentage points, but with 13 percent undecided.
Here's Cuccinelli's problem: Forty-five percent of those surveyed by PPP, a Democratic firm, said they had an unfavorable opinion of Cuccinelli.
As for McAuliffe, just over a quarter of those surveyed told PPP that they had an unfavorable opinion of him, but half said they weren't even sure what they thought of the guy, though this is his second run for governor.
The Quinnipiac poll found that 61 percent of those surveyed hadn't heard enough about McAuliffe to form an opinion.
McAuliffe Remains Mystery
"Nobody knows who he is," says Brown, the Quinnipiac pollster. "Activists might know McAuliffe, but Joe and Jill Sixpack don't."
Enlarge image i