The next couple of days will bring fireworks, hot dogs — and a new unemployment report.
At least the first two will be fun.
As for Friday's job-market assessment, the Labor Department report likely will show little or no change in the 7.6 percent unemployment rate. "There is still a general weakness in the labor market," says Daniel North, economist with Euler Hermes, a credit insurance company.
North estimates that employers added about 160,000 jobs in June, matching what most other economists are forecasting. Those forecasts may tick up a bit Wednesday because ADP, a company that tracks payroll data, said that in June, private companies hired 188,000 workers, somewhat more than expected.
But once private job gains are combined with government job cuts, the overall employment trajectory is in line with what economists have been seeing throughout the recovery: slow progress. Since late 2010, U.S. employers have been adding an average of 175,000 jobs per month.
"That's well below the 250,000-jobs-a-month pace that we need to really be growing," North said. "We're just running in place."
Unfortunately, North's dreary assessment could sum up the entire recovery, which began exactly four years ago. The economy, which had been in free fall in late 2008, hit bottom in June 2009. Then in July of that year, growth resumed.
The Two-Way
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