As August begins, retailers are stepping up sales promotions to attract back-to-school shoppers. And several states are offering tax-free shopping to encourage purchases.
But most economists say this year's sales will be slower than last summer's because consumers have been coping with more expensive gasoline and higher payroll taxes.
"This year's back-to-school shopping season appears slightly weaker than last year," economist Chris Christopher, with IHS Global Insight, said of the retail period that ranks second only to the holiday shopping season.
To get consumers in the mood to shop, many retailers started back-to-school advertising and sale pricing weeks ago. The data aren't in yet to show the final impact of those early promotions on July sales.
But traditionally, August is the key month for sales of kids' backpacks, shoes, clothes, lunchboxes and notebooks. Those sales are expected to total $635 for the average family with school-age children, down from last year's $689, according to the National Retail Federation.
Spending is higher for college-bound students, who need more expensive things like computers and textbooks, as well as bedding and beanbag chairs for dorm rooms. This year, the average family with a child in college will spend $837, down from last year's $907, the trade association estimates.
The NRF says school and college shopping combined will add up to $72.5 billion.
Looking To Cut Corners
"As they continue to grapple with the impact of increased payroll taxes, Americans will look to cut corners where they can, but will buy what their kids need," NRF President Matthew Shay said in a statement on the season's outlook.
Examples of corner-cutting include shopping for generic rather than brand-name goods, he said. Roughly 1 in 3 shoppers said in a recent NRF survey that he would do that, as well as wait for sales.
And more people will be heading to discount stores, according to the New York-based International Council of Shopping Centers. A survey done in mid-July by that group showed 9 in 10 consumers plan to shop in discount stores this year, up from 83 percent in 2012.
To give shoppers yet another way to reduce the hit to their pocketbooks, 18 states are offering sales tax holidays this summer.
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